中国的军事扩张 - 中国视角
文章来源:龙腾网
Many in the West view China's rapid military expansion as a growing threat to global and regional security. In fact, nothing could be further from the truth, or so writes Ai Zhong-Guo. Beijing has little time for global or regional domination, which it reminds everyone in its 2013 Defence White Paper.
以许多西方观点看来,中国快速增长的军事扩张不断威胁全球和区域安全,事实上,没什么比事实更能说明真相,要不然“爱中国”也不会写这篇文章。北京无暇顾及对全球或区域进行掌控支配,2013年《国防白皮书》让人记忆犹新。
Prepared by: Ai Zhong-Guo for AsiaPacificDefenceReporter.com
“爱中国”为亚太防务网站撰稿。
In July, China's ambassador to Washington spoke to CNN. Addressing the issue of the USA's "strategic pivot" to Asia, Cui Tiankai said it was "not quite in proportion to the real threat". Cui also suggested the USA was using the threat of North Korea as a pretext to strengthen military alliances in the region.
七月,中国大使崔天凯在华盛顿接受CNN采访,认为美国向亚洲“战略中心”转移“不会平衡区域威胁”,同时暗示美国以北朝鲜的威胁为借口加强与此区域盟友的军事联盟。
A month earlier, in June, Presidents Xi Jinping and Barack Obama vowed to build a "new type of relationship" during the Chinese leader's landmark visit to the USA.
However, there are several points of friction between the two powers, among them Taiwan, the aforementioned "pivot" and territorial disputes. Cui was dubious the USA would not take sides in the Sino-Japanese dispute over the Diaoyu Islands, for example. "It's a matter of how the US would really stick to this position of taking no side. Sometimes, when the US is talking to us, they say one thing; and when they are talking to Japan, they say another. So what is the real position of the USA?" he queried.
六月,在中国国家领导人到访美国期间,习主席和奥巴马总统励志要建立一个全新的双边关系,然而在两大强权之间存在着诸如台湾、如上述的战略转移和领土纷争问题的摩擦。大使表示,目前不能确定美国在中日关于钓鱼岛争端问题的立场。“美国如何真正在这个问题上坚持不站队,这是个问题,当美国与我们交流的时候说的一套,而和日本沟通的时候说的又是另外的一套。”
For a long time, China has been receiving a bad rap for its climb to prominence. Indeed, the international media is fixated on portraying China as a threat to regional peace, a loose cannon that must be contained. Nothing could be further from the truth, according to this author. This article seeks to redress some of the imbalances in public perception, and set out from a Chinese viewpoint, what the growth of China's military really amounts to.
长久以来,中国一直承受着快速崛起而带来的非难,事实上,国际媒体习惯于把中国的崛起描绘成对区域和平的威胁,需要控制和制衡,笔者认为,没什么能比事实更能说明真相,这篇论文目的在于从中国的视角出发,矫正公众的感知,中国的军事增长到底意味着什么。
Warmongering or Peaceful?
好战还是和平?
One accusation bandied about is that China is spoiling for a fight with neighbours or the USA. A simple comparison suffices. The last war China engaged in was a brief border dispute with Vietnam in 1979. This conflict occurred nearly 35 years ago. If we compare US adventurism during the same timeframe, we find that this superpower has engaged in the following missions or invasions:
一个指责控告一直在传播,说中国急于和邻国或美国来一场战争,一个简单的比较足以说明一切,中国最后的一次战争是1979年与越南的自卫反击战,至今已有35年,比较在这同一时期的美国,我们会发现,这个超级强权,忙于以下系列战事:
Lebanese Civil War (1982-84)
黎巴嫩内战
Bombing of Libya (1981, 1986, 1989)
轰炸利比亚
Invasion of Panama (1989-90)
入侵巴拿马
Gulf War (1990-91)
海湾战争
Somali Civil War (1992-94)
索马里内战
Bosnia (1993-95)
波斯尼亚战争
Haiti (1994-95)
海地政变
Kosovo (1999)
科索沃战争
Colombian Conflict (1998-)
哥伦比亚冲突
Invasion of Afghanistan (2001-)
入侵阿富汗
War on Terror (2001-)
反恐战争
Invasion of Iraq (2003-11)
入侵伊拉克
Liberia (2003)
利比里亚
Libyan Civil War (2011).
利比亚内战
Right now it is on the verge of striking Syria. While some items on this list are admittedly international peacekeeping missions, it does serve to highlight the fact that the USA, more than anyone else, likes to throw its weight around. Our latest Defence White Paper, issued in April 2013, states unequivocally, "China unswervingly pursues an independent foreign policy of peace and a national defence policy that is defensive in nature. China opposes any form of hegemonism or power politics, and does not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries."
而现在它正处于打击叙利亚的边缘,虽然在上面的清单中有些任务是在维护世界和平,但这也让美国看起来要比其他任何国家更喜欢展示它的肌肉。我们最近在2013年4月发布的国防白皮书,明确声明;“中国继续坚定不移的奉行一个独立的和平外交政策和防御性国防政策,中国反对一切霸权主义和强权政治,不干涉别国内政。”
Some argue the Taiwan issue shows China’s intent to wage war. The status of Taiwan is one very dear to the Chinese heart, because no nation wishes to have its territory and people divided. Taiwan was forcibly separated from mainland China when it was seized by Japan in 1895 and subjected to five decades of imperial rule.
Indeed, Taiwan's continued estrangement is a visible reminder of past injustices wrought by imperial powers. Of course, the current division is a result of China's civil war against the corrupt Kuomintang administration in the late 1940s and it is entirely an internal Chinese matter. The People's Republic of China (PRC) would one day like Taiwan to peacefully reunite, just as Germany did in 1990 after the Cold War fizzled out.
有人争辩说台湾事务显示中国将要付诸武力。台湾是中国的宝岛,没有任何国家希望她的领土和人民分离,台湾从1895年被日本侵略后就脱离中国大陆,经受了五十多年的帝国统治。
的确,因为皇权的统治导致了台湾持续的疏离状况。目前,由于上个世纪40年代中国内战,国民党战败,占守台湾,这完全是中国的内部事务,中华人民共和国希望有一天台湾能和平回归,就像冷战结束后德国那样。
Many unfairly accuse China of not renouncing the threat of force to reunite Taiwan. Article 8 of the 2005 Anti-Secession Law states: "In the event that ‘Taiwan independence’ secessionist forces should act under any name or by any means to cause the fact of Taiwan’s secession from China, or that major incidents entailing Taiwan's secession from China should occur, or that possibilities for a peaceful reunification should be completely exhausted, the state shall employ non-peaceful means and other necessary measures to protect China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity." This law simply continues the status quo and provides a legal basis to protect China's interests. Has the USA ever promised any potential adversary that it will never use force to respond to some future provocation? No rightthinking government makes such rash promises by discounting particular courses of action.
有许多对中国的不公正指责,关于中国不放弃武力收复台湾。2005年颁布的《反分裂法》第八款陈述:““台独”分裂势力以任何名义、任何方式造成台湾从中国分裂出去的事实,或者发生将会导致台湾从中国分裂出去的重大事变,或者和平统一的可能性完全丧失,国家得采取非和平方式及其他必要措施,捍卫国家主权和领土完整。”该法仅仅延续了现状并为维护中国国家利益提供了法律依据。美国是否承诺对于来自潜在敌手一些可能的挑衅放弃武力呢?不会有任何政府会做出如此草率的行为。
China's 2013 White Paper promises, "We will not attack unless we are attacked; but we will surely counterattack if attacked. Following this principle, China will resolutely take all necessary measures to safeguard its national sovereignty and territorial integrity." The 'China threat' towards Taiwan is grossly overblown.
Indeed, China is enjoying warming social, economic and political ties, especially since President Ma Ying-jeou assumed office in 2008. Furthermore, China's relations with Taiwan can never be construed as indicative of wider Chinese ambitions in Asia; Taiwan is a one-of-a-kind issue.
白皮书承诺:“人不犯我,我不犯人,人若犯我,我必犯人。根据这个原则,中国将坚决采取一切必要措施维护国家主权和领土完整”。中国对于台湾的威胁被过分渲染。事实上,尤其自从2008年马九九上台后,两岸很享受这么一个温和的社会、经济和政治联系。而且,两岸关系永也不会表明中国的亚洲野心,而是相反的一个很好的例子。
In fact, China believes US military aid to Taiwan is the most serious disturbance to regional peace. The Taiwan Relations Act, under whose auspices the USA provides modern military equipment, is an anachronism. It originated in 1979 at a time when the USA was still afraid of communism spreading around the globe. The end of the Cold War rendered such treaties out of date. If this situation was reversed, readers may better understand how upsetting the USA's arming of Taiwan actually is. Imagine that Puerto Rico, for example, decided to cut ties with the USA, and that China began actively arming it with high-tech military weapons. This is very similar to what the USA is doing to China.
实际上,中国相信美国对于台湾的军事援助是最严重地破坏地域和平。在《台湾关系法》的支持下,美国对台提供现代化武器不合潮流。这起源于1979年,那时美国仍在恐慌于共产主义在全球的扩散,在后冷战时代发布这样的协定真是太out了。如果形势逆转,读者可以理解美国对台军事援助有多烦人了吧。举个例子,波多黎各决定于美国断绝关系,而中国则开始武装现代化高新武器。
It is therefore no surprise that China is developing anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) weapons such as anti-ship ballistic missiles to prevent US military interference in a Chinese matter. Just as the USA felt it intolerable to have Russian missiles deployed in its Cuban backyard in 1962, so the PRC resents American intrusion on the issue of Taiwan.
因此,中国发展反封锁武器比如反舰弹道导弹来对抗美国军事干涉也就不足为奇。就像美国不能忍受1962年苏联在古巴部署导弹一样,中国对美国涉入台湾事务一样深恶痛绝。
General Chang Wanquan, China's defence minister, made his first official visit to the Pentagon on 19 August to meet Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel. Chang conve8yed disquiet over the USA's Asia-Pacific "pivot". The US should not "target a specific country in the region", he said. "[Both nations should refrain] from imposing one's will on the other, or gaining one's own interests at the expense of the interests of the other."
8月19日,中国国防部长,常万全上将造访了美国五角大楼,会见了美国国防部长黑格尔,表达了对于美国的“亚太战略中心转移”的忧虑,表示美国不应以区域内某一个国家为目标,双方都应该克制,不应将一方的意志强加于另一方,不能将自己利益凌驾于别人利益之上。
中国军力增长
China's defence budget rose 10.7% this year to USD114.3 billion. The White Paper claims, "Over the years, the PLA has been proactively and steadily pushing forward its reforms in line with the requirements of performing its missions and tasks,and building an informationised military."
中国国防预算今年增长10.7%达到1143亿美元,白皮书公布:“多年以来,解放军积极稳定地推进发展成满足于她的使命和任务,努力建造成一个信息化的军队。”
The PLA is becoming more mobile with smaller modular units, yet it has also shrunk dramatically after undergoing progressive downsizing in 1985, 1997 and 2003. These programmes reduced the armed forces by one million, 500,000 and 200,000 personnel respectively. In other words, the PLA cut its size by 40+% over a ten-year period!
Today the army service of the PLA has total manpower of 850,000. The PLA Navy (PLAN) is a major beneficiary of new equipment under China's offshore defence strategy; a blue-water capability is necessary to conduct mobile operations, cooperate internationally and counter non-traditional security threats. The PLAN has 235,000 personnel and the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) 398,000 people.
解放军正向小模块化发展,并分别在1985年、1997年、2003年裁减了100万、50万和20万人,令人瞩目。换句话说,在近十年间,解放军人数裁减了超过40%!目前,陆军总数有85万,海军受益于新装备的研发投入,向深蓝海军发展,广泛的国际合作,和应对非常规威胁,目前人数有23.5万,空军39.8万人。
Modernisation of the armed forces cannot be separated from the transformation of Chinese society in general. The PLA was a very late starter in terms of modernisation. In the 1980s, expenditure was static so the defence budget started from a very low baseline. Since then the budget has grown in parallel with the economy as a whole. Rather than raw figures, the percentage of GDP is a better indicator of defence spending levels. In the past decade it has varied from 1.22% to 1.42%, which is not outlandish. In contrast, the USA averaged 4.7% in 2010-11. Furthermore, unlike Europe and the USA, China does not have a network of alliances and international technological partners with which it can jointly develop weaponry. China is not pursuing a sudden arms race, but it is gradually upgrading a hopelessly obsolete force. Much spending goes to improving pay and living conditions – for example, in 2011 salaries and benefits for non-commissioned officers (NCO) increased 40%.
总之,武装部队的现代化离不开中国的社会变革,这方面中国起步较晚。上个世纪八十年代,中国国防预算一直处于一个非常低的状态,随着经济的增长预算开始增加,抛开生硬的数字,国防预算占GDP的百分比是一个很好的反应预算增长水平的指数,在过去的十年里,从1.22%增加到1.42%,这也不是个稀奇的事情,相反,在2010年到2011年间,而美国的预算占GDP的4.7%,而且,不像美国和欧洲,中国没有一个盟国和国际技术联盟来共同发展武器,中国不进行武器竞赛,只是逐步的升级落后的装备,而相当一部分用于薪资和改善生活条件,比如说,2011年,军人的薪酬和福利增长了40%。
Despite new equipment reaching the PLA, older weapon systems predominate. For instance, only a third of in-service ground systems can be considered modern. Similarly, just 25% of naval surface vessels and aircraft are modern. Comparing raw numbers of weapons on paper does not reflect just how outdated PLA equipment in China's inventory actually is. China recognises its equipment cannot compete directly with that of the USA, for instance. Additionally, the aircraft and amphibious vessels necessary to project power from Chinese shores are also lacking. Most analysts agree that the PLAN’s capability still falls behind that of Japan's navy.
尽管新装备不断充实军队,但是旧式武器仍然是主导,只有三分之一的陆战系统被认为是现代化的,相似的,只有25%的军舰和战机是新式装备。比较纸上的数据很难反应出军队事实上落后装备的库存。中国承认他们的装备不能与美国相提并论。同时,飞机和两栖舰艇对于中国漫长的海岸线来说还是严重缺乏,大多数分析家认为,计划内能力仍然要比日本落后很多。
China has no recent combat experience either. Our recently commissioned Liaoning aircraft carrier is an all-new capability and it will take years to master its use. In comparison, the US Navy has a wealth of accumulated wisdom after operating carriers for 91 years. It is inevitable a nation will develop its military as its economic power rises. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was launching a new submarine every month. In comparison, China's build-up has been measured and unhurried.
中国在近期没有任何作战经验,最近服役的辽宁号航母对于我们来说仍然是新鲜事物,还需要数年时间来摸索,相比美国,海军操作航母有91年的经验,对于一个国家,经济得到发展必然要发展她的军事。在冷战期间,每周苏联都一艘潜艇下水,比较而言,中国的发展速度要温和的多。
Defence Minister Liang Guanglie told US Defence Secretary Robert Gates in January 2011, "I also firmly believe that in terms of the level of modernisation of the PLA, we can by no means call ourselves an advanced military force. The gap between us and that of advanced countries is at least two to three decades."
2011年1月,国防部长梁光烈对美国国防部长盖茨说:“我同时完全相信,依据我们军队的现代化水平,我们不能称我们是一个先进的军事力量,我们之间的差距至少有二三十年。”
It is true there are maritime territorial disputes in the East China and South China Seas. However, the PLA has been careful not to get involved. These are the domain of the China Marine Surveillance (CMS) agency. It is hoped these disputes can be solved diplomatically, as China has strong historical claims on these territories.
在东海和南中国海有领土争端,这是事实,然而,人民解放军小心避免介入,那是海监的事务,希望这些争端能在外交上解决,中国在这些区域有历史主张。
Another half-baked idea thrown around, particularly by Indian media, is the 'string of pearls' notion of Chinese naval ports stretching across the Indian Ocean. This theory has no truth, something confirmed by Jane's Intelligence Review in an article entitled 'Harbouring Ambitions' published in November 2009. China contributed financially to build commercial ports in Myanmar (Sittwe), Bangladesh (Chittagong), Sri Lanka (Hambantota) and Pakistan (Gwadar), but these are not used for naval purposes. Conversely, the USA maintains bases or has access to facilities in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Guam, Australia and Singapore. This is the equivalent of China possessing naval bases in Canada, Mexico, Cuba and Greenland to surround the North American continent. Such an action would doubtlessly make Americans feel uncomfortable. The Chinese people feel the same way about this robust US presence. To date, China has made no effort to establish overseas bases, and it even declined an offer from the Seychelles Islands.
还有一个流言在传播,尤其是印度媒体不遗余力的宣传,中国在印度洋造军港构建珍珠链包围印度,这个理论不是事实,2009年9月《简氏周刊》一篇名为《包藏祸心》的文章已经证明此事纯属乌有,中国只是援助缅甸、孟加拉国、斯里兰卡和巴基斯坦建造商港,而非用作军港,相反,美国的基地进入日本、南韩、菲律宾、澳大利亚和新加坡,这就相当于中国在加拿大、墨西哥、古巴、格陵兰建造基地包围北美大陆,这样的行动无疑要让美国不自在,中国人民对于美国这样粗鲁的行为身同感受,迄今为止,中国没有任何在海外建立基地的计划,甚至还婉拒了来自塞舌尔的邀请。
Painful History
悲惨的历史
The USA complains the PLA is “not transparent”. It must be remembered that China is emerging from a very turbulent past. While the military may not yet have attained the standards of US or European openness, it is making progress. A series of White Papers has given progressively more information as the country moves towards greater transparency. Since 2002, the PLA has held 28 joint exercises and 34 joint training sessions with 31 different countries as it opens up. Indeed, on 6 September three PLAN warships sailed into Hawaii to begin a three-day search-and-rescue exercise with the US Navy. The last such visit to US territory was seven years ago.
美国总是在抱怨中国军力不透明,但它必须要记得,中国刚从一个动荡的过去走出来,军方还没有取得像美国或者欧洲那种“透明”的标准,但仍在努力。一系列日益增多的皮书的发布,让这个国家越发透明,自从2002年,解放军和31个不同国家参与了28次军事演习和34次培训性会议,9月6日,三艘战列舰造访夏威夷,开始为期三天的与美国海军共同搜索营救演练,上一次类似的访问是在7年前。
Remember, too, that history has scarred the Chinese psyche. European nations invaded and imposed unfair treaties on China (e.g. the opium wars). Japan’s invasion from 1937-45 caused terrible suffering and resulted in numerous atrocities. That conflict left 20 million dead and 100 million internal refugees. Japan has not fully admitted to many atrocities (e.g. the Nanjing Massacre), and this is a deep-seated irritant in Sino-Japanese relations. An increasingly nationalistic Japan is thus a great source of concern. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s promise to restore his country’s “greatness” is like a red rag to our nation. China has already suffered from Japanese nationalism, and we remain mistrustful of European, US and Japanese intentions based on past injustices.
同时也要记得,中国历史伤痕累累,欧洲列强入侵中国,迫使中国签订许多不平等条约(如鸦片战争),1937年至1945年的日本侵华战争,让中国蒙受灾难,导致2000万人丧身,1亿多人流离失所,而日本至今对许多暴行不承认(比如南京大屠杀),这深深地刺激着中日关系发展。一个日益增长的日本民族主义让人如此担忧,安倍首相承诺要重拾“国家荣耀”,深深刺激中国人的心,中国已经遭受了日本民族主义的灾难,基于过去的不公正对待,我们对欧洲、美国和日本各种意图时刻心存戒备。
Multiple Tasks
多样任务
In fact, the PLA has little time for 'regional or global domination'! Common threats frequently highlighted by the Chinese government are terrorism, separatism and extremism. Uygur separatists in Xinjiang Province, for example, are constantly fomenting trouble. The country has 22,000km of land borders with 14 neighbours, plus an 18,000km coastline. Safeguarding these borders is difficult and arduous, and it occupies a good proportion of the country’s manpower.
事实上,解放军没什么时间去“支配区域或全球”!对付恐怖主义、分离主义和极端分子是政府安排的首要任务,新疆独立分子不断的制造麻烦,这个国家有22000公里边界线和14个邻国,还有18000公里海岸线,保家护国是件艰巨的苦差事,这占用了国家人力资源的很大比例。
The PLA is also responsible for providing support in cases of natural disaster and public-health outbreaks (e.g. SARS). For example, in 2008, the armed forces/ militia contributed 1.26 million members to combat snowstorms in southern China. Another 221,000 mobilised after the deadly Sichuan earthquake that year. In 2011-12, the PLA contributed 370,000 servicemen, 197,000 vehicles/pieces of equipment, obilised 870,000 militiamen/reservists and flew 225 sorties to support rescue operations.
同时,解放军也要为一旦发生的自然灾害和流行疾病暴发提供支持,比如在2008年,为南方雪灾出动1260万人进行救灾,同年调动了221000人参与四川大地震救灾。在2011年到2012年间,解放军共出动了37万人次、197000台车辆、87万民兵和225架次飞机参与救灾。
The PLA is constitutionally required to support national and local plans for economic and social development too. It commits personnel and assets to key infrastructure projects, environmental protection and poverty alleviation measures. The PLA does much more than defend the country, for it is an integral component of societal development and improving people's livelihood.
解放军同时也被要求支持国家和地方经济和社会发展,要求全体人员和资源进行参与关键基础设施建设、环保工程和扶贫工作。解放军的主要工作的确是保护国家,但是作为社会整体部分,也要为社会发展和保障民生作出贡献。
Greater Reach
保驾护航
Fuelled by a booming economy, the PRC needs to import a continuous stream of raw materials. It must then send its commodities to export markets, primarily by sea. Last year, China's imports and exports were worth USD3.87 trillion, surpassing the USA for the first time and making China the globe's largest trader. The country thus needs to protect its sea lines of communication (SLOC), and non-traditional security threats such as piracy in the Gulf of Aden have demonstrated the need for countries to protect domestic shipping. China, as a responsible global player, has worked closely with other nations to successfully thwart would-be pirates. Since the first naval task force was despatched to the Gulf of Aden on 26 December 2008, the PLAN had escorted 4,984 ships till the end of last year.
刺激繁荣经济,中国需要不断进口原料和通过海运出口货物到海外市场,中国的去年的进出口额达到3.87万亿美元,第一次超过美国成为全球最大贸易国,所以这个国家需要保护贸易航线,应对非传统威胁,如亚丁湾海盗。中国,作为全球负责任国家,已经和其他国家成功合作打击海盗,自从2008年12月26日开始出动军舰第一次护航,到去年年底已为4984艘商船进行护航。
Some say China does not contribute enough to international alliances, but the facts reveal otherwise. The PLA has despatched 22,000 personnel to 23 United Nations (UN) peacekeeping missions to date. As at July 2013, 1,703 officers and soldiers were deployed on UN missions. Of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, China supplies more personnel than any other. The USA, for instance, had a mere 24 servicemen on UN missions, and the UK just 278. Furthermore, since 2002, the PLA has conducted 36 international humanitarian-aid missions to 27 disaster-struck countries.
有些人说中国对国际事务贡献不足,事实并非如此,迄今为止解放军已经为联合国派遣23次维和任务,截止2013年7月,共有1703名军官和士兵参与维和使命,作为5个联合国常任理事国之一,中国要比其他国家派遣更多的人力,比如美国,只有24军事人员出任联合国任务,英国278人,而且,自从2002年,解放军向27个国家派遣指挥了36次救灾援助。
The PLAN conducted a landmark evacuation of nationals from Libya in 2011. In the PRC's largest ever overseas evacuation, the rescue of 35,860 nationals was assisted by a frigate (on a Gulf of Aden escort mission at the time) and four aircraft. Such crises demonstrate the need for a capable navy, as China does not wish to rely on external powers like the USA to protect its people and interests.
2011年利比亚的撤侨就是个典型,中国在海外有巨大的华侨民众,一艘护卫舰和4架航行器营救了35860个侨民,在紧急关头,需要一个能胜任的人民海军,中国不指望依靠像美国这样的外部力量来保护她的人民和国家利益。